Odds

Understanding Mega Millions Odds Across All Tiers

A complete mathematical breakdown of the 9 prize divisions and the hypergeometric formula governing them.

The 1 in 302,575,350 Formula

The total combinations for the white balls are calculated using combinations: C(70, 5) = 12,103,014. Multiplying this by the 25 possible gold Mega Balls yields exactly 12,103,014 × 25 = 302,575,350 possible unique tickets.

Complete 9-Tier Prize Breakdown

  • Match 5 + Mega Ball: 1 in 302,575,350 (Jackpot)
  • Match 5 + 0: 1 in 12,607,306 ($1,000,000)
  • Match 4 + Mega Ball: 1 in 931,001 ($10,000)
  • Match 4 + 0: 1 in 38,792 ($500)
  • Match 3 + Mega Ball: 1 in 14,547 ($200)
  • Match 3 + 0: 1 in 606 ($10)
  • Match 2 + Mega Ball: 1 in 693 ($10)
  • Match 1 + Mega Ball: 1 in 89 ($4)
  • Match 0 + Mega Ball: 1 in 37 ($2)
Overall Odds: The probability of winning any prize on a single $2 ticket is approximately 1 in 24 (4.17%).